Digital Sovereignty or Data Colony? AI and Africa's Place in the Global Economy

The global AI economy is projected to contribute up to $15.7 trillion to global GDP by 2030. Yet 85% of these gains are expected to flow to North America, China, and Europe leaving Africa and other regions to share a fraction of the benefits. The current global AI architecture risks entrenching a model of AI Colonialism, where Africa serves as a source of raw data and a consumer of finished AI products, while wealth generation remains elsewhere. Global technology firms harvest data from African users to train models that are sold back to African governments and businesses as licensed services mirroring historical patterns of extracting raw commodities while importing finished goods. The consequences are stark: permanent trade deficits in the digital economy, loss of agency through reliance on algorithms trained on Western norms, and wealth generated by African data flowing to Silicon Valley or Shenzhen rather than Nairobi, Lagos, or Johannesburg. This trajectory is not inevitable but it is the default if we do not intervene. To help address these critical knowledge gaps, the Artificial Intelligence for Development (AI4D) programme supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has launched a research initiative to generate actionable, locally grounded evidence, with diagnostic support from Genesis Analytics. This policy brief forms part of a broader research agenda examining four thematic areas, including global inequality and AI colonialism, with the aim of equipping African researchers and policymakers with the insights needed to shape the continent’s role in the global AI economy.