The Cost of Flying Blind: AI and Future of African Labour

Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the global division of labour and Africa has the most at stake. By 2050, the continent's working-age population will double to 1.6 billion, representing an extraordinary demographic dividend. But this potential can only be realised if there is meaningful work for young people. Today, 72 million youth are already classified as Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEET), and millions of new jobs must be created annually just to keep pace. AI could inject $2.9 trillion into African economies but it also threatens to disrupt the very entry points through which young people access the workforce. From automating routine clerical and analytical tasks to destabilising key sectors like Business Process Outsourcing, AI risks narrowing the pathways that have historically absorbed young workers. For the 85% of Africans in the informal economy, the stakes are even higher, as AI-driven platforms introduce new forms of algorithmic management that could deepen economic precarity. The question is not whether AI will transform Africa's labour market, it will. The question is who shapes that transformation, and in whose interest. To help close these critical knowledge gaps, the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), through the Artificial Intelligence for Development (AI4D) programme, have launched a research initiative to generate actionable, locally grounded evidence, supported by diagnostic research from Genesis Analytics. This first policy brief, focused on productivity and economic transformation, introduces one of four thematic research areas designed to inform policies and strategies that position Africa more equitably within the global AI economy.